To optimize returns on investment, prioritize single entry 50/50s and head-to-head (H2H) contests. These formats typically offer the best chance for a positive ROI. Seek out matchups against less experienced players, particularly in H2H and small field double-ups, to increase your chances of success.
The objective with low-risk lineups is to secure a stable floor by focusing on players with consistent median outcomes, rather than chasing the highest possible scores. Align with the wisdom of the crowd and concentrate on positions where outcomes are most predictable.
Strategies for Low-Risk NFL DFS Lineups:
Embrace Popular Picks:
In NFL DFS, ownership percentages are a reliable indicator of top plays due to the extensive analysis available. In low-risk contests, align your lineup with the consensus to capture the most dependable point sources.
Prioritize High-Usage Running Backs:
Commit to running backs (RBs) who consistently receive a high volume of touches. These players offer the most reliable performance and should be your go-to picks. Avoid RBs with uncertain game scripts, saving them for high-risk lineups.
Flex Position: Utilize a RB:
Given the predictability of running backs, it's generally wise to fill your flex spot with a third RB to solidify your lineup's baseline scoring potential.
Target Volume in Receivers:
Wide receivers (WRs) and tight ends (TEs) with a high number of targets are vital. Their consistent involvement in the passing game or an anticipated increase in targets due to a role change can lead to a more predictable scoring floor.
Quarterback-Receiver Stacking:
While not essential for low-risk lineups, pairing a quarterback with one of his receivers can naturally occur and is not discouraged. It's not mandatory, but it can provide a boost when the match-up is right.
Defense Selection:
There's typically little value in investing heavily in a defense. Instead, look for affordable options that are favorites according to Vegas odds or are expected to face a high volume of passing plays, which can lead to turnovers and sacks.
Maximize Your Salary Cap:
NFL DFS pricing is generally efficient, making it unnecessary to leave salary unused. Aim to utilize your entire available salary to ensure you're not missing out on potential points, particularly in low-risk contests.
By applying these principles, you can craft low-risk NFL DFS lineups that stand a solid chance of consistent performance, providing a steady approach to building your DFS bankroll.